5 Things Every Trader Needs to Know About Rates

From what’s priced in to curve inversion to term premium. Here are the 5 things every trader needs to know about the rates market…

Updated 11:41am EST

Tidal Forces & Financial Markets

There's a pattern & predictability to tides that make them easy to forecast. But, on very long timescales, that doesn't mean they are constant by any measure. At a celestial level, the amount of force produced depends on the mass of the objects involved, the distance, the eccentricity of the orbits, and the radius of the bodies - for starters. The push & pull that's observed in financial markets is analogous: different assets exhibit similar ebb & flow as correlations oscillate. Trough to crest to trough to crest...

Odds of another 100bps or more this year? 1 in 5.

I mentioned this morning that the options market was beginning to make some pretty exceptional progress on the way to pricing in 50bps+ at the September meeting. What's even more significant, in my mind, is what the market has done to the odds of additional easing in 2019. We're now 1 in 5 odds that the Fed delivers an additional 100bps by year-end.